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03/15/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Nuggets continue their push toward the postseason without head coach George Karl tonight against a desperate Houston Rockets team.
The Nuggets have played without Karl, who is undergoing radiation and chemotherapy to combat throat and neck cancer, for the third straight game on Saturday against Memphis as the coach continues treatment. The veteran mentor is still adjusting to the feeding tube that was inserted into his stomach during a surgical procedure last Monday.
Denver has won six in row and is 3-0 on its current trip but sits just one- half game ahead of Dallas for the No. 2 spot in the competitive Western Conference.
The Nuggets, who are being piloted by lead assistant Adrian Dantley on their trek, last swept a four-game road trip in April of 2005. Meanwhile, the team is aiming to sweep the season series against the Rockets tonight for the first time since the 1977-78 season.
J.R. Smith scored 16 of his 30 points in the fourth quarter on Saturday, as the Nuggets used a huge final period to defeat the Grizzlies, 125-108. Smith made 11-of-16 field goals, including a 7-for-10 performance from beyond the arc.
"I got it going, but the most important thing was that we got it going as a team," Smith said. "We got out in the open court, (and we got some easy shots)."
Carmelo Anthony donated 24 points and six rebounds, while Chauncey Billups ended with 22 points. Nene donated 13 for the Nuggets, who outscored Memphis, 40-23, in the fourth.
The Rockets dumped hapless New Jersey on Saturday when Luis Scola poured in a career-high 44 points on 20-of-25 shooting and grabbed 12 rebounds, as Houston got past the Nets, 116-108, at the Toyota Center.
Scola topped his previous career-high of 30 for the Rockets, who have won three of their last four games but are a distant 5 1/2 games behind Portland for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West.
Kevin Martin chipped in with 20 and Aaron Brooks posted 18 and seven assists as Houston has now won eight straight against the Nets.
"It's a game obviously we really needed to get," said Rockets coach Rick Adelman. "People look at their (Nets) record and think it should be an easy win, but they have a very good center and a very good point guard. They seem to have a feel for how they want to play. I'm just glad to get this win."
<< Fading Hornets resume road trip vs. Clippers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fading New Orleans Hornets resume a five-game road trip
at Staples Center tonight hoping for their 13th straight win over the Los
Angeles Clippers.
The Hornets dropped the opener of their trek in Phoenix last night whe
<< Jazz return home to face hapless Wizards
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Utah Jazz hope a return to Salt Lake City against a
hapless Washington team will get them back on the winning track as the
postseason approaches.
The short-handed Jazz dropped the final two games of a four-game road tr
<< Celtics and Pistons clash in Beantown
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Celtics hope to bounce back from a tough loss in
Cleveland on Sunday when they welcome Eastern Conference also-ran Detroit to
Beantown.
In a possible playoff preview the C's came up short against the Cavs when
<< Sixers, Knicks meet in Philly
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Third place in the Atlantic Division is on the line tonight
in Philadelphia.
Of course, third place doesn't mean all that much if you are entering the
contest at 23-43 like the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers.
Ne
Colts sign OT Terry >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts have agreed to
terms with offensive tackle Adam Terry, who had spent his first five NFL
seasons with Baltimore.
Terry missed the entire 2009 campaign because of an in
Roy Williams re-signs with Cincinnati >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Bengals made it official on
Monday and re-signed safety Roy Williams.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed for Williams, who had become an
unrestricted free agent after an injury-s
Charlotte fires men's hoops coach >>
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Charlotte has fired men's basketball coach
Bobby Lutz after a 12-year stint.
Charlotte collapsed at the end of the season, losing seven of its last eight
games, including a 59-56 setback against Massachu
Huddlestone inks new Spurs deal >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Huddlestone has put pen to paper on a
new long-term contract with Tottenham.
The 23-year-old midfielder has agreed to terms on a new deal which will keep
him at White Hart Lane until the summer of 2
MySportsbook.com Releases World Series Championship Lines
New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox early favorites to win 2008 World Series
The Major League Baseball season starts this weekend and MySportsbook.com, a leading online sportsbook for over 8 years, is the first to offer baseball sports betting lines on who will win the 2007 World Series.
"The World Series is the biggest baseball event in the sports betting world and MySportsbook.com is excited that we are first to market with betting lines on every team," says Tim Dalton, Marketing Director, MySportsbook.com. "We are getting things ready for a great baseball season and our members are looking forward to our Player Payback Bonuses, as well as Dime Lines, all season long."
Going in to this weekend, MySportsbook.com's favorites to win the World Series are the New York Yankees at 7-2 and last year’s winners the Chicago White Sox at 9-2.
"These betting lines are ripe for the picking," Dalton added, "baseball fans know that the season is long and many factors, including players staying healthy, will affect these Future odds as the baseball season progresses. Betting on your favorite team in the beginning of the season could prove quite lucrative. We are seeing examples of this right now in the NCAA College Basketball Tournament with a lucky few that placed pre-season bets on George Mason to win it all. Anything can happen."
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About www.MySportsbook.com
MySportsbook.com is the foremost online sportsbook offering Internet wagering to its worldwide customers. Fully licensed and regulated in St. John’s, Antigua since 1997, MySportsbook.com offers a complete range of online casino games, sports betting lines, poker tournaments and horse racing offtrack betting daily through its portfolio of companies and managed services. With over 7 years of experience, MySportsbook.com has become one of the most respected companies in the gaming industry by providing unparalleled 24/7 customer support and timely payouts. MySportsbook.com is part of the SportingBet PLC group of companies that is publicly-traded on the London Stock Exchange ( LSE ) under the symbol SBT.L. MySportsbook.com provides a secure environment for sports and casino wagering and has been featured in numerous media outlets, including MAXIM Magazine, Cigar Aficionado, and CNN’s Paula Zahn Now among others.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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